How can President Obama recover from mid-term losses?

Brooks Newmark writes for 'The House' magazine.

Obama seems set to face a drubbing next week: the polls do not look good for the Democrats. Yet we should not be overly negative about Obama’s re-election prospects for 2012.

Mid-terms are notoriously difficult for sitting presidents: the party holding the presidency often lose votes at the ballot box. President Obama will be no different. Since 2008, Obama has struggled to live up to the hype that surrounded his election. Indeed the election of Republican Senator Scott Brown in Massachusetts, following the death of Edward Kennedy, was certainly a shot fired across the bows of the President. This may be a precursor of what is to come on 2nd November: the Democrats could lose both Houses.

Like the Coalition Government, Obama is facing an economic mess not of his making, forced to repair the policies of his predecessor. Unlike David Cameron, he carries the added burden of the US system of divided government and pork-barrel politics, which hamper his attempts at political and economic reform. This will not get any easier if the Democrats lose control of one or both Houses.

While the Tea Party have been making headlines and seemingly boosting the Republican vote, the GOP remains divided and lacks clear leadership. By the time of the 2006 midterms, the then Senator Obama was a major figure on the US political radar. There does not appear to be any similar figure in the Republican Party as yet, Mitt Romney notwithstanding. Without a strong, serious, candidate, there can be no successful challenge. This lack of leadership within the Republic Party, combined with even a mild economic recovery, should put Obama back in the White House in 2012.

First published in The House Magazine